Spatial change of agricultural land uses in Erbil Governorate and the possibility of its spatial variance for the years1994-2016

Abstract

   This research aims to build statistical models to analyze the change in agricultural land uses for wheat and barley crops in Erbil Governorate for the years from 1994-2016, represented by using a simple linear regression model of the straight line function to measure the time rate of spatial change , and the use of the probability model using the standard degree (Z), which highlights the percentage of the probabilities of values ​​above and below the average with a number of standard deviations, depending on the statistical appendix that shows the function of the normal distribution function, which helps to reveal the percentage of the probability of occurrence of a value greater or less than a certain number of the phenomenon, Through which it is possible to represent the spatial change of agricultural land uses for cultivation of wheat and barley in Erbil governorate and the spatial variation of the possibility of the relative importance of agriculture in its spatial and temporal dimensions and its classification in order to test hypotheses about the importance of potential drivers of change in agricultural land uses and the possibility of its spatial variation that helps us understand the causes and effects of this change.

Keywords: time rate of change, spatial variance of probability, spatial form, arithmetic mean, standard degree